A fork in the road
A preview of what may be coming during the 2026 session of the Idaho Legislature
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The Idaho Legislature is veering to the extreme. The issues that profoundly affect the daily lives of Idahoans are not being seriously nor sufficiently addressed, including: public education, unaffordable housing, inadequate healthcare, traffic and infrastructure, wages that don’t keep up with the cost of living, and access to public lands.
Instead, the legislature has become obsessed with abortion, masks, vaccines, immigrants, refugees, library books, flags, parades, bathrooms, and DEI. At the same time, it gives your taxpayer dollars to private and religious schools, and huge tax breaks to the wealthy – while undercutting the funding for vital state services that people expect and depend on.
Idaho politics is at a fork in the road. The majority party is at war with itself. Extremists are taking control; many having only recently moved to Idaho. They have shown disrespect and contempt for long-time traditional conservatives and Republicans, calling them RINOs (Republicans In Name Only) and accuse them of not being “real” conservatives. They even censured the governor and 14 incumbent Republican legislators, declaring them to not be Republicans based on one vote on one bill.
The coming 2026 legislative session may mark an inflection point in determining who controls Idaho:
- Will the legislature continue writing laws that tell you how you can and can’t live your life, or . . .
- Will the legislature get serious and provide for the urgent needs of a fast-growing state with an aging infrastructure? Failure to do so will make living in Idaho more difficult for you and your family.
I choose the latter – making serious decisions based on logic, reason and critical thinking, not political slogans or threats. I will continue to take this path as I consider the legislation that come before me during the 2026 session.
Fasten your seat belts,
it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
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Here is what may be coming in 2026. Some of the potential legislation discussed below might not happen or may change significantly; the devil is always in the details. Given the current political climate – especially in an election year – it will be very difficult for anyone, Republican or Democrat, to move meaningful legislation forward that earnestly addresses the difficult issues and decisions facing Idaho. I anticipate having to spend much of my time trying to stop bad bills, or help make bad bills less bad.
Taxes and budgets
Decades of misguided fiscal policies have culminated in Idaho now having to deal with a self-inflicted budget deficit. This deficit may reach upwards to $1 billion next year. As shown below, claims by extremists that Idaho has a “spending problem” are absurd.
Idaho has a revenue problem, not a spending problem. Here are just some of the billions of dollars the legislature has reduced state revenue by recently:
- Over $4.5 BILLION in lost revenue over the next 10 years, mostly in an income tax cut that nets the average Idahoan about $126, while the top 1% will get about $20,407.
- An additional $4.1 BILLION in lost revenue due to several tax cuts and rebates since 2021.
- An additional $6.4 BILLION in lost revenue in 2025 (over $60 BILLION since 2012) due to accumulated income, property, and sales tax exclusions that never get reviewed and never expire.
Instead of seeking ways to recapture some of the deliberately reduced revenue, all state budgets (except public education) were cut by 3%. Majority party leaders then created a so-called “DOGE task force” to identify additional state services and benefits they could get rid of – including Medicaid Expansion.
Tax and budget bills to watch for include:
- Maintenance budget bills. Instead of passing a single budget for each department, the legislature has split each budget into separate “maintenance” and “supplemental” budget bills. The maintenance budgets, which are barely enough to keep the lights on, are voted on first. Once they pass, there is no guarantee that a supplemental budget will even be written – the maintenance budget could become the only budget. I plan to vote against all maintenance-only budget bills that fail to meet the complete needs of departments that provide vital state services.
- Conformity bill. Normally, this non-controversial bill conforms Idaho tax code with the federal government at the beginning of every year. However, with Congress passing the “Big Beautiful Bill” earlier this year, Idaho stands to lose hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue every year if a conformity bill is passed. I am inclined to not support this year’s conformity bill, unless it includes provisions that prevent the state from going further into debt. The current (and looming) budget deficit makes it clear the state can’t afford to voluntarily reduce revenue any further.
- Income tax cut bill. Yet another income tax cut upwards to $90 million/year is rumored to be in the works. If so, this would be highly irresponsible given the state’s current budget deficit.
- DOGE task force recommendations. Expect the DOGE task force to recommend reducing or eliminating several departments or functions, in addition to repealing or limiting Medicaid Expansion benefits. It is not clear if the governor would intervene to protect Medicaid Expansion.
Education
Some of the anticipated bills related to education include:
- Increase the amount of taxpayer dollars going to for-profit private and religious schools. After spending millions of dollars over seven years, out-of-state lobbyists succeeded in getting the legislature to pass a first-ever school voucher/tax credit bill. They are now aggressively recruiting parents to apply for that tax credit, which is currently capped at $50 million. Since it is a first-come/first-served program, they hope to create a “demand exceeds supply” crisis that will pressure the legislature to throw even more taxpayer dollars into the program ($250 million/year by one account). That would further reduce funding for your local public schools – which increases your property taxes by forcing the need for more local school bonds and levies.
- Cut public school funding. Public schools were initially exempted from the governor’s across-the-board 3% budget cut, but this may not last. The pressure to close a budget deficit may result in further cuts to public education. This will make it even more difficult for public schools to meet parental expectations, thus making it easier for private schools to sell their product as an attractive alternative.
- Further cuts to college and university funding. Higher education was not exempted from the governor’s 3% budget cuts. I expect the legislature to continue looking for excuses to make further cuts to higher education (especially BSU and the U of I) based on dubious, perceived grievances.
- Introduce religious teachings in public schools. Previous attempts at forced Bible reading and religious displays in classrooms are indications of what may be coming this session.
- Funding for special education. The Superintendent of Public Instruction requested $50 million for special education in public schools, which is half of the actual need. Even that request has since been withdrawn. There may hopefully be legislation that provides an alternate funding solution for special education.
Other issues
Efforts from previous sessions may surface again this year, including:
- Eliminate or severely restrict voting via absentee ballots.
- Eliminate citizen-driven ballot initiatives.
- Enable gerrymandering by replacing the current bi-partisan redistricting commission with one controlled by a handful of majority party leaders.
- Require every election in Idaho to be partisan elections (from governor to sewer districts).
- Incentivize more data center construction, which could significantly impact residential utility bills.
My legislative email newsletters can help keep you informed of these and other legislative activities. I send them once every 2-3 weeks during the session. Each newsletter includes the following:
- general observations (usually in the form of an introductory narrative)
- bills I know voters care about (based on my interactions with constituents)
- important bills that may fly under the radar
- how I voted, and most importantly . . .
- the reason for my vote (which explains why I vote against bad bills with good-sounding titles)
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